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Every year, the IEA (International Energy Agency), the world’s foremost recognized authority on energy, publishes a report summarizing the previous year's energy evolution and how these shifts affect previous projections. 

Part rearview mirror, part stress test, the IEA’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) offers a high-level overview of what changed over the last year and what those changes mean for the energy transition overall and where energy systems could be headed next.

There’s no single energy storyline

The path to 2050 is being shaped by countless variables—policy follow-through, technology adoption, supply chain constraints, geopolitics, weather volatility, consumer behavior, and capital availability—that are often moving at different speeds in different regions. 

To more accurately capture the threads coming together to determine our future reality, the IEA examines our path forward through the lens of three different approaches: 

For the first time, the IEA notes that all scenarios exceed 1.5°C “on a regular basis” by around 2030. This update changes the entire conversation. We’re no longer debating, “Will we cross 1.5°C?” The real questions are: How far above it we go, how long we stay there, and how resilient do energy systems need to be while we fight our way back down?

In the CPS, the emissions trajectory is consistent with almost 3°C of warming by 2100. In the STEPS, lower emissions keep warming to around 2.5°C by 2100 (slightly higher than last year’s STEPS). 

In the NZE scenario, warming peaks around 2050 at about 1.65°C and then declines slowly after that, largely due to active measures to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere to 1.5°C in 2100. 

This 1.5°C (34.7° F) difference depends entirely on how we decide to move forward, the degree to which we innovate and prioritize deployment, and on turning ambition into real, measurable emissions cuts. It’s a process that starts with awareness and learning about where we are now.

A system under pressure: 2025 in review

Most of these trends have been building for years. What changed is the velocity and the way they’re stacking on top of each other. Electrification meets grid strain, resilience meets geopolitics, and growth shifts to new regions with new constraints.

Energy security is getting more complex 

With sanctions shaping oil markets, gas flows still being rewritten after the cut in Russian supplies to Europe, and growing political pressure from grid strain, blackouts, and operational incidents, energy security is no longer just about supply. It’s a high-stakes game of keeping the entire system stable, resilient, and reliable under stress.

Critical minerals and clean-tech supply chains are increasingly central to security, and market concentration, especially in refining, creates real risk when diversification remains the golden rule. Meanwhile, electricity security threats are multiplying: Cyberattacks on utilities have tripled over the past four years, and extreme weather is driving more widespread outages, affecting roughly 200 million households last year.

Energy marketing takeaway

Energy companies need to communicate resilience like a core product feature, not a footnote. That means being clear about how you reduce exposure across multiple fronts:

  • Cyber readiness and recovery speed
  • Weather hardening and outage response
  • Supply chain diversification (especially minerals and components)
  • Grid reliability and operational resilience

The Age of Electricity is here, and the grids aren’t keeping up

Electricity demand has been rising faster than overall energy demand for several years, and it’s true in every scenario the IEA models. The drivers are straightforward, and they’re not going away: more service-based economies (digital, finance, healthcare), rising cooling demand as incomes climb, and the surge in AI and data centers. 

By 2035, the minimum additional electricity needed is about 10,000 terawatt-hours; that’s roughly the total electricity advanced economies consume today. While investment in electricity generation has climbed sharply (around $1T/year), investment in grids is far behind (around $400B/year).

Energy marketing takeaway

The transition narrative has to shift from “more generation” to “deliverable electricity.” Companies should be able to say, clearly, how they help solve the grid problem:

  • Faster interconnection and infrastructure buildout
  • Smarter grid operation and flexibility
  • Reliability improvements (and measurable outcomes)

Batteries are taking center stage

As the grid gets more variable and peak demand rises, flexibility becomes the headline requirement. Why are batteries the new rising star in the energy world? They stabilize systems with high solar penetration and cooling demand spikes. According to Laura Cotzy, we should expect a major scale-up in deployment because costs have fallen and the grid needs dispatchable flexibility. 

Energy marketing takeaway

Storage and efficiency belong in the same story: “Keep the system stable while demand rises.” Communicators should frame batteries less as a tech trend and more as infrastructure that enables reliability:

  • Peak demand support and grid stability
  • Flexibility to integrate variable renewables
  • Resilience during stressed operating conditions
  • Efficiency standards as a fast, low-drama lever

Renewables are scaling fast, but fossil fuels are still shaping the system

Low-emissions technologies are growing very quickly, led by solar. Why? Because it’s cheaper, policies still support it, and much of the new electricity demand is happening in regions with excellent solar resources. 

At the same time, fossil fuel outlooks diverge by scenario. Under current policies, oil and gas growth can extend beyond 2030 and toward mid-century. Under stated policies, oil demand flattens around the end of this decade, while gas growth extends into the 2030s this year—driven by policy changes in the U.S. and lower prices from a wave of new LNG. 

Energy marketing takeaway

The most credible companies will tell the truth: The transition is accelerating, but legacy fuels still matter, especially for reliability and regional realities. The messaging win is clarity:

  • What is scaling (and why)
  • What remains necessary (and where)
  • What reduces risk and emissions over time (EVs, efficiency, infrastructure)

The center of energy demand is shifting

China is reaching peak population and could have 50 million fewer people within a decade, which changes its long-running role as the dominant demand driver. Meanwhile, demand growth increasingly comes from emerging and developing economies—especially India and Southeast Asia, alongside parts of Latin America and Africa, as people get wealthier and buy more cooling appliances and vehicles.

Why does this matter? These drivers are highly electricity-intensive, and regional conditions change the energy mix. Many of these markets need cooling rather than heating and often have strong solar resources, which shifts how gas, renewables, and grids evolve.

Energy marketing takeaway

Global companies need region-aware narratives that match local needs and constraints:

  • Cooling-driven electricity demand and peak management
  • Affordability and reliability as the trust threshold
  • Deployment at scale in fast-growing markets
  • Solutions that fit local resources (especially solar) and grid readiness

The road to 2030: What’s next

We’re entering the second half of the 2020s, and the stakes have never been higher. What we choose to fund, build, and follow through on in the next five years will shape the global energy system for decades, setting the trajectory for both long-term stability and climate outcomes.

It’s also the point where energy strategy stops being theoretical and starts getting field-tested. Can we build grid capacity fast enough, manage peak demand without sacrificing reliability, scale storage like infrastructure, and harden systems against cyber threats and climate-driven disruption?

Grid spending and interconnection reform

Watch for real movement on the bottleneck: transmission and distribution upgrades, faster permitting, and actual queue relief. The tell isn’t another target, but also shorter interconnection timelines, fewer stranded projects, and utilities building “grid capacity” as fast as developers are building generation.

Peak demand management

Peak is becoming the new constraint, driven by cooling, electrification, and concentrated loads like data centers. Expect more focus on demand response, time-of-use rates, grid modernization, and “keep-the-lights-on” planning that treats peaks as the first problem to solve.

Storage at scale

The storage story is shifting from pilots to standard practice. Look for storage being planned and procured like infrastructure—paired with renewables, installed near load, and used for flexibility, reliability, and congestion relief (not just “backup power”).

Cyber and resilience posture

Cyber risk is now an uptime issue, not an IT issue. Expect more requirements around hardening, incident response, and recovery time, plus more public scrutiny after disruptions. Leaders will be able to quantify resilience via metrics such as detection speed, restoration speed, and reduced impact.

Critical mineral diversification

Minerals and refining capacity are moving from “supply chain” to “strategy.” Watch for new refining projects, alternative sourcing agreements, recycling scale-up, and policy tools that reduce single-country dependence, because clean tech growth is now linked to material availability.

LNG market-reality

The next wave of LNG isn’t just about supply. It’s about where it can land and who can pay. Expect sharper attention on contract structures, financing, and demand growth in emerging markets where price sensitivity and infrastructure readiness will decide how much of the “wave” becomes real consumption.

Efficiency standards

Efficiency is the low-drama lever with high system impact, especially for cooling and appliances. Expect more momentum on minimum performance standards and better equipment deployment, because the cheapest way to reduce peak strain is to not create the demand in the first place.

A partner with a finger on the pulse of the industry

The IEA does the hard part: cutting through the noise, compiling all the data, and analyzing where the global energy system is headed amid real-world constraints. As a marketing agency with a deep well of energy expertise, we have a finger on the pulse—not just with hallmark reports like the IEA’s World Energy Outlook, but through our daily collaboration with innovators across the energy value chain. This helps our customers anticipate what’s next, communicate with authority, and seize opportunities only possible when your marketing partner understands all the trends, players, and dynamics shifting the energy landscape. 

We’re as immersed in energy as you are. Our domain expertise is a launchpad for bold ideas that fuel measurable growth today and as global energy systems evolve. 

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